Because the nationalist group’s vote is split between Prabowo-Gibran and Ganjar-Mahfud, one of them will likely make it to the second round. #aminkanIndonesia
JAKARTA | KBA – The Anies Baswedan-Muhaimin Iskandar (AMIN) pair is considered likely to smoothly progress to the second round, bolstered by solid Muslim voter support and additional backing from nationalists.
This prospect is further enhanced by the competition between Prabowo Subianto-Gibran Rakabuming Raka and Ganjar Pranowo-Mahfud MD for voters from the same niche, namely the nationalists.
This was stated by political expert Umar Sholahudin in response to the assessment by Burhanuddin Muhtadi, Executive Director of Indikator Politik Indonesia, who opined that the potential votes for Ganjar-Mahfud MD and Prabowo-Gibran come from the same voter base.
“I agree with Burhanuddin Muhtadi’s statement that the vote banks or captive markets (of Prabowo-Gibran and Ganjar-Mahfud) are relatively similar, coming from nationalist circles. Thus, it’s natural for them to vie with each other,” Umar told KBA News, Thursday, November 30, 2023.
Meanwhile, the Islamic group, forming the majority of Indonesia’s supporters, he continued, becomes the vote bank for the AMIN pair. However, this does not mean Prabowo-Gibran and Ganjar-Mahfud MD are not religious, nor that AMIN is not nationalist.
“All candidates have nationalist and religious spirits. Maybe the difference lies in the degree when viewed from the personal representation (of the candidates) and their supporters,” said the Political Sociology lecturer and Vice Dean of Academic Affairs at the Faculty of Social and Political Sciences, Wijaya Kusuma University (UWK) Surabaya.
Therefore, he added, the 2024 Presidential Election could be seen as a competition between nationalist and religious groups. Because the nationalist group’s vote is split between Prabowo-Gibran and Ganjar-Mahfud, one of them will likely make it to the second round.
Meanwhile, he revealed, the AMIN pair is likely to receive a relatively wholehearted vote from Muslim voters and an additional nationalist element. Notably, besides being supported by two Islamic parties (PKB and PKS), AMIN is also backed by the nationalist-leaning NasDem Party.
“Therefore, it’s logical to predict that the political contenders likely to enter the second round are the nationalist representation (Prabowo-Gibran) and the AMIN pair,” said Umar Sholahudin.
Previously, Burhanuddin Muhtadi, Executive Director of IPI, noted the potential votes for Ganjar Pranowo-Mahfud MD and Prabowo Subianto-Gibran Rakabuming Raka were interconnected. This was evident from survey findings showing that as Prabowo-Gibran’s support increased, Ganjar Pranowo-Mahfud MD’s decreased.
Meanwhile, AMIN’s votes remain steady or slightly increase. If this pattern continues and no one obtains 50 percent plus one vote, Burhan explains, “The most likely candidates to enter the second round are Prabowo versus Anies.” (kba)