“Is the rumored Ganjar-Prabowo coalition Jokowi’s masterstroke to counter the Anies-Muhaimin challenge in the 2024 elections?” #kbanews.
IN the complex landscape of Indonesian politics, nothing is certain—especially when it comes to potential political coalitions like the much-discussed union between Ganjar Pranowo and Prabowo Subianto. It’s a pairing that could either emerge as a powerful force or remain a fleeting concept, depending on various strategic moves and public sentiment.
The buzz surrounding a Ganjar-Prabowo alliance isn’t new. This topic had been under consideration when the Koalisi Indonesia Bersatu (United Indonesia Coalition) was still active. That coalition is now dissolving, with members defecting to other alliances—PPP with Ganjar, Golkar and PAN with Prabowo. Though, of course, nothing is set in stone.
Originally, the idea to unite Ganjar and Prabowo was reportedly inspired by the presidential palace. The proposed formation was clear: Ganjar for President and Prabowo for Vice President. Prabowo, however, was not keen on playing second fiddle, so to speak, opting instead to focus on his equestrian interests in Hambalang.
The reason this coalition has been reignited as a topic of conversation is quite simple: the duo face stiff competition from Anies Baswedan and Cak Imin. This pair has proven to be formidable, thwarting years of attempts to sideline Anies Baswedan. Therefore, uniting Ganjar and Prabowo is seen as the only feasible strategy to take on the Anies-Muhaimin juggernaut.
The potency of the Anies-Cak Imin alliance can be dissected into numerous variables. However, one point resonates loudly: if Anies and Cak Imin weren’t a strong and potentially winning pair, why would there be talks about consolidating forces between Ganjar and Prabowo?
The prolonged focus on blocking Anies politically by using all possible means has ironically only boosted his brand. This makes the possibility of joining forces between Prabowo and Ganjar ever more likely and perhaps necessary.
Puan Maharani, responding to the speculation, said in politics nothing is impossible. Ganjar himself mentioned that all options are on the table. But the real question is, if both camps meet, who will be the presidential candidate? The negotiations would undoubtedly be complicated and protracted.
Both Prabowo and Anies Baswedan belong to a cluster of people who are presidential material; lowering them to vice-presidential candidates would drastically affect their electoral potential. Ganjar, on the other hand, has the flexibility of being either, depending on PDIP leader Megawati Soekarnoputri’s stance.
Prabowo and his party Gerindra would most certainly not be content with a vice-presidential position. Having run for the presidency twice, taking a backseat now would be politically damaging. The public would perceive Prabowo as a power-hungry individual, even though ambition is a prerequisite for anyone aiming for the presidency.
So where does this leave PDIP? Would they agree to make Ganjar the vice-presidential candidate? Even if they did, would Ganjar comply? And if not Ganjar, then why not Puan Maharani? She and Prabowo were originally considered a viable pairing, creating a Gerindra-PDIP alliance.
Another key consideration is the millennial voter demographic that will dominate the 2024 elections. Prabowo will be 73 by then, making his age a crucial factor for PDIP to mull over.
Adding to the complexity, recent controversies, such as comments from PDIP Secretary-General Hasto hinting at Prabowo’s supposed aggressive traits, make the task of uniting the two parties even more challenging.
In conclusion, as political dynamics continue to unfold, will PDIP relent and settle for a vice-presidential position, or will they press ahead with Ganjar as their presidential candidate? The landscape of the 2024 presidential race is proving to be not just fascinating but also highly unpredictable.
* Tony Rosyid, Political Analyst and Columnist
